The Passing Parade

It's amazing how the international photographic equipment industry has changed since the 1960s. Back then, who'd have thought that by 2009 the following would be true:

• The Konica and Minolta brands would have disappeared
• Leica and Panasonic (the people who make transistor radios???) would effectively be in partnership to make cameras
• Sony (more transistor radios???) would be a leading camera maker
• Leading European camera brands such as Voigtlander, Contax et al would have effectively disappeared
• Hoya (the filter makers?) would own Asahi Pentax
• Photographer's darkrooms would have turned into desktop computers

.... and here's the big one

• Except for highly specialised people and applications there is effectively no such thing as photographic film any more

When digital cameras first appeared in serious numbers it is amazing how many photographers (who should, by now, be knowing better) predicted that they'd remain a frivolous toy - just like motor cars, aeroplanes, talking pictures, CDs, personal computers and everything else that entrenched minds have always failed to get their heads around. No one, however, predicted the suddenness with which film would finally die - except perhaps the folks at Kodak, who for years had been trying to diversify in something of a panic.

In the light of phtography's recent history it is fascinating to predict what is likely to happen in the near future. Someone who makes predictions every year about what will happen to the photographic industry and its leading playes is Thom Hogan. You can read his predictions for 2009 here: http://www.bythom.com/2009predictions.htm

Looking back over previous Thom Hogan predictive articles, it is fascinating to see how generally correct he has been. Of course, on this occasion he predicts that the international economic downturn will hasten the death of so many prominent photographic businesses including the passing of most specialist photographic retailers and the demise of almost all specialist photographic equipment manufacturers. Wow - let's hope not. A world without Nikon, Pentax, Olympus? What a bleak prospect that would be.

See my work at www.pbase.com/davidhobbs